Data · dataset · 2026
Attribution of NAO predictive skill beyond 2Â weeks in boreal winter
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Weeks 3-6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively.
Description
A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999-2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions.
NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3-6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon.
Read the rest (1 more)
Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7765jnd ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/attribution-of-nao-predictive-skill-beyond-2aweeks-in-… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=a0a31698-9376-4d0f-95de-69b4a9db9… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 72%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | a0a31698-9376-4d0f-95de-69b4a9db9f14 | 9 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (72%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |