ULF wave analysis and radial diffusion calculation using a global MHD model for the 17 March 2013 and 2015 storms

Using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global MHD model driven by upstream solar wind measurements, we simulated both St. Patrick's Day 2013 and 2015 events, analyzing Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry electric and magnetic fields to calculate radial diffusion coefficients. These coefficients have been implemented in a radial diffusion code, using the measured electron phase space density following the local heating as the initial radial profile and outer boundary condition for subsequent temporal evolution over the next 12 days, beginning 18 March.

Agreement with electron phase space density at 1000 MeV/G measured by the MagEIS component of the ECT instrument suite on Van Allen Probes was much improved using radial diffusion coefficients from the MHD simulations relative to coefficients parameterized by a global geomagnetic activity index.