2017 Atlantic hurricane forecasts from a high-resolution version of the GFDL fvGFS model: Evaluation of track, intensity, and structure

A high-resolution nested version of the GFDL finite-volume dynamical core (FV3) with GFS physics (fvGFS) model (HifvGFS) was used to conduct hindcasts of all Atlantic TCs between 7 August and 15 October. HifvGFS showed promising track forecast performance, with similar error patterns and skill compared to the operational GFS and HWRF models.

Some of the larger track forecast errors were associated with the erratic tracks of TCs Jose and Lee. A case study of Hurricane Maria found that although the track forecasts were generally skillful, a right-of-track bias was noted in some cases associated with initialization and prediction of ridging north of the storm. The intensity forecasts showed large improvement over the GFS and global fvGFS models but were somewhat less skillful than HWRF.