Management Strategy Evaluation: Hindcast Model Output, 1979-2012 (B73)

Four climate scenarios are considered for MSMtA and MSMtB because temperature influences weight-at-age and the predation mortality function in MSMt. Forecasts were based on downscaled temperature data forced ROMS model (Herman et al. 2013).

The ROMS-NPZD model (Hermann et al. 2013) was set-up to run in forecast mode using input from selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models that performed well for the Eastern Bering Sea. The four scenarios are: Future temperature is constant and equal to the mean of historical temperatures (temperature scenario 1), and future temperature in each projection year is the mean summer water column temperature predicted from a ROMS model for the Bering Sea forced by three statistically downscaled global climate models based on the IPCC A1B climate scenario (Wang et al., 2010), including: (temperature scenario 2) ECHO-G version 4, T30 resolution model (Legutke and Voss, 1999), (temperature scenario 3) CCMA model (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CGCM3-t47; Flato et al., 2000, Flato and Boer 2001, Kim et al. 2002, 2003), (temperature scenario 4) MIROC 3.2 (Watanabe et al., 2011, K-1 model developers, 2004).