Performance of high resolution (400Â m) PM2.5 forecast over Delhi

Such a high-resolution system has been developed for the first time and is evaluated during October 2019-February 2020. The system assimilates near real-time aerosol observations from in situ and space-borne platform in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to produce a 72-h forecast daily in a dynamical downscaling framework.

The assimilation of aerosol optical depth and surface PM2.5 observations improves the initial condition for surface PM2.5 by about 45 mu g/m(3) (about 50%).The accuracy of the forecast degrades slightly with lead time as mean bias increase from+2.5 mu g/m(3) on the first day to - 17 mu g/m(3) on the third day of forecast. Our forecast is found to be very skillful both for PM2.5 concentration and unhealthy/ very unhealthy air quality index categories, and has been helping the decision-makers in Delhi make informed decisions.