Uncertainty in global groundwater storage estimates in a Total Groundwater Stress framework

Current unsustainable groundwater use threatens the resilience of aquifer systems and their ability to provide a long-term water source. Groundwater storage is considered to be a factor of groundwater resilience, although the extent to which resilience can be maintained has yet to be explored in depth.

In this study, we assess the limit of groundwater resilience in the world's largest groundwater systems with remote sensing observations. The Total Groundwater Stress (TGS) ratio, defined as the ratio of total storage to the groundwater depletion rate, is used to explore the timescales to depletion in the world's largest aquifer systems and associated groundwater buffer capacity. We find that the current state of knowledge of large-scale groundwater storage has uncertainty ranges across orders of magnitude that severely limit the characterization of resilience in the study aquifers.