Investigating the use of a Genesis potential index for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

We also find that for assessing basin wide cyclone frequency, averaging indices over the whole basin is less skillful than its application to the general area off the coast of Africa broadly covering the Main Development Region (the MDR). These results point to a revised index, the Cyclone Genesis Index (CGI) comprised of only potential intensity and vertical shear. Application of the CGI averaged over the MDR demonstrates high and significant skill at reproducing interannual variations and trends in all-basin cyclones across both reanalyses.

The CGI also provides a more accurate reproduction of seasonal variations than the original GP. Future work applying the CGI to other tropical cyclone basins and to the downscaling of relatively course climate simulations is briefly addressed.