Upper stratospheric ClO and HOCl trends (2005-2020): Aura Microwave Limb Sounder and model results

The model HOCl climatology, however, underestimates the MLS HOCl climatology by about 30 %. This could well be caused by a combination of fairly large systematic uncertainties in both the model-assumed rate constant for the formation of HOCl and the MLS HOCl retrievals themselves. The model daytime ClO trends versus latitude and pressure agree quite well with those from MLS.

MLS-derived near-global upper stratospheric daytime trends between 7 and 2 hPa are −0.73 ± 0.40 % yr−1 for ClO and −0.39 ± 0.35 % yr−1 for HOCl, with 2σ uncertainty estimates used here. The corresponding model decreases are somewhat faster than observed (although the difference is not statistically significant), with trend values of −0.85 ± 0.45 % yr−1 for ClO and −0.64 ± 0.37 % yr−1 for HOCl.

Both data and model results point to a faster trend in ClO than in HOCl. The MLS ClO trends are consistent with past estimates of upper stratospheric ClO trends from satellite and ground-based microwave data. As discussed in the past, trends in other species (in particular, positive trends in CH4 and H2O) can lead to a ClO decrease that is faster than the decrease in total inorganic chlorine.

Regarding trends in HOCl, positive trends in HO2 can lead to a faster rate of formation for HOCl as a function of time, which partially offsets the decreasing trend in active chlorine. The decreasing trends in upper stratospheric ClO and HOCl provide additional confirmation of the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, which have led to the early stages of an expected long-term ozone recovery from the effects of ozone-depleting substances.