Data Sheet 1_Livestock-driven agricultural expansion and the transformation of a dryland food system in northern Mexico.pdf

In dryland regions, the expansion of livestock-oriented production systems can drive the specialization of agricultural production systems and accelerate landscape transformation. This study examines how livestock-driven agricultural expansion is reshaping land-use patterns in the Comarca Lagunera, a major dryland food-producing region in northern Mexico and one of the country’s most important dairy basins.</p>Methods<p>Agricultural and livestock production trends were analyzed using official statistics, while land cover changes for 2003, 2013, and 2023 were mapped from Landsat imagery using Google Earth Engine.

Future land use and land cover trajectories to 2050 were simulated under two scenarios representing the long-term historical trend and recent historical trend, using a spatially explicit model incorporating biophysical and socioeconomic drivers.</p>Results<p>The expansion of forage crops associated with intensive livestock production became the dominant change, primarily replacing native shrubland and food crops destined for human consumption.