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Data · dataset · 2026

Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period

Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change.

Description

Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (similar to 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2-3 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments.

In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones.

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These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

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Inferred from text
Climate model simulation 65% · Palaeoclimatology 77%
Provenance · 1 source records, 9 field assertions
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concepts[method].local:method:climate-modelenrichment · data ucar edukeyword-concept-rules@1.0.0title+description (65%)
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