Sun active regions from 1976-2017

As a case study, the complex {delta}-type AR12673 and the simple {beta}-type AR12674 are investigated in detail. Since the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum determines the amplitude of the subsequent cycle and space climate, we have assimilated the individual observed magnetic configurations of these two ARs into a surface flux transport model to compare their contributions to the axial dipole moment D. We find that AR12673 has a significant effect on D at the end of the cycle, making it weaker because of abnormal and complicated magnetic polarities.

An initial strongly positive D ends up with a strongly negative value. The flare- poor AR12674 has a greater contribution to the long-term axial dipole moment than the flare-rich AR12673. We then carry out a statistical analysis of ARs larger than 800{mu}Hem (solar hemisphere) from 1976 to 2017.