Typhoon forecasts with dynamic vortex initialization using an unstructured mesh global model

The DVI extracts the departure vortex within a specified radius of the vortex center and implants this vortex at the observed vortex location in continuously cycled 1-h integrations of the model. The cycling integration is stopped when either the simulated central sea level pressure or maximum wind speed of the typhoon has reached the value in the best track data, denoted as P-match or V-match, respectively.

The DVI may spin up the initial vortex with a more contracting eyewall, but still keeping the same size of the outer vortex. Forecasts for 16 typhoons over the western North Pacific in 2015-20 are investigated. Predictions from the experiments with the 60-15-km variable-resolution MPAS mesh show that both P-match and V-match significantly improve the track forecasts, where V-match mostly requires less cycle runs than P-match.