Using a WRF-ADCIRC ensemble and track clustering to investigate storm surge hazards and inundation scenarios associated with Hurricane Irma

However, clustering highlights the areas of inundation risk in south and west Florida associated with different storm tracks. In the northeast region, every cluster has high inundation probabilities along a similar coastal stretch, indicating high confidence at a similar to 5-day lead time that this area will experience inundation. For the 8 September simulations, track and inundation in both regions vary less across the ensemble, but clustering remains useful for distinguishing among flooding scenarios.

These results demonstrate the potential of dynamical TC-surge ensembles to illuminate important aspects of storm surge risk, including highlighting regions of high forecast confidence where preparations can reliably be initiated early. The analysis also shows how clustering can augment probabilistic hazard forecasts by elucidating inundation scenarios and variability across a surge ensemble.