A new verification approach? Using coupled natural-human models to evaluate the impact of forecast errors on evacuations

With this in mind, the authors designed a coupled natural-human modeling framework with high-level representations of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connec-tions between elements (forecasts and warning information, traffic).

Using the model, this article begins exploring how tropical cyclone forecast errors impact evacuations and, in doing so, builds toward the development of new verification approaches. Specifically, the authors implement track errors representative of 2007 and 2022, and create situations with unexpected rapid intensifica-tion and/or rapid onset, and evaluate their impact on evacuations across real and hypothetical forecast scenarios (e.g., Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Dorian making landfall across east Florida).