<p>AUC and calibration slopes of LASSO models.</p>

A model using only data available at the first AOM episode had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (0.73, 0.77) and an Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.41 (95% CI 0.37, 0.46), indicating moderate discriminative ability. At the time of the first AOM episode, features associated with subsequent rAOM development included age, number of prior antibiotic prescriptions, and diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).

Further, children who developed rAOM were more likely to experience treatment failure than children who did not meet rAOM criteria across all episodes. Our findings indicate that clinical exposures and patient characteristics documented in the EHR distinguish children who are at risk of developing rAOM. Such models could be deployed within EHR systems to identify children who would benefit from early evaluation by an otolaryngologist and audiologist.</p></div>