Forecast evaluation of the North Pacific jet stream using AR Recon dropwindsondes

It is in the midlatitude jet stream where instabilities and waves may develop into synoptic-scale systems, which in turn makes accurately resolving the structure of the jet stream and associated features critical for atmospheric development, predictability, and impacts, such as extreme precipitation and winds.

Using dropwindsonde observations collected during the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) campaign from 2020 to 2022, this study assesses the North Pacific jet stream structure in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Results show that the IFS has a slow-wind bias on the lead times assessed, with the strongest winds ( GE;50 m BULL;s(-1)) having a bias of up to -1.88 m BULL;s(-1) on forecast day 4.