Data Sheet 1_Paradoxical PM2.5-longevity estimates in global country panels are sensitive to differential trend control: a specification analysis, 2000–2023.pdf

The coefficient changed to −0.023 years (95% confidence interval, −0.175 to 0.129) after adding economy-specific linear trends and to −0.006 years (95% confidence interval, −0.085 to 0.073) in first differences. PM2.5 measured 2 years after the outcome was positively associated with current life expectancy in a separate-lead model (0.296 years; 95% confidence interval, 0.042 to 0.549), but the +2-year lead was attenuated and imprecise after adjustment for current exposure (0.152 years; 95% confidence interval, −0.039 to 0.342; p = 0.119).

Regional estimates also differed in direction.</p>Conclusion<p>The positive conventional coefficient was not robust to trend-focused specifications, and the future-exposure pattern raised concern about unresolved temporal structure without constituting a stand-alone falsification test. The pattern is consistent with unresolved differential trajectories, but the analysis does not establish that trend heterogeneity is the sole source of bias.

Aggregate PM2.5-longevity studies require explicit estimand definition, trend diagnostics, change-based estimators, covariance sensitivity checks, and temporal negative controls before interpreting coefficients as health effects.</p>