CCS Species Distribution Models for coastal pelagic species

Results from two different SDMs are shown: Generalized Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees, and both models predict the probability of occurrence of each species. The model outputs are generally similar, but the BRTs can be more prone to producing offshore artefacts, especially for market squid and jack mackerel. We used data from the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center Coastal Pelagic Species and Columbia River Predator (Emmett et al. 2006) trawl surveys to train all SDMs, with the exception of market squid, where juvenile salmon survey data were used instead (see Chasco et al. 2022 for description of these data).

More details on SDMs are available in Muhling et al. (2019); Fennie et al. (2022), and Quezada et al. (2023). Important caveat for the sardine SDMs: these models use spawning stock biomass from the stock assessment as an indicator. Since 2022, Japanese sardine (S. melanostictus) have been detected in the California Current System in increasing numbers.

These animals are excluded from the stock assessment using genetic identification, so there are likely to be more total sardine in the region than predicted by the sardine SDM. These outputs are free to use, but we strongly recommend contacting Barbara Muhling (Barbara.Muhling@noaa.gov) before working with them, to ensure complete understanding of the details and caveats. Fields are updated on ERDDAP about once per year, but additional updates can be pushed upon request.

Funding for this work was provided by NOAA Office of Sustainable Fisheries, and the NOAA Climate and Fisheries Adaptation program. References Chasco, B. E., Hunsicker, M. E., Jacobson, K. C., Welch, O. T., Morgan, C. A., Muhling, B. A., & Harding, J. A. (2022). Evidence of Temperature-Driven Shifts in Market Squid Doryteuthis opalescens Densities and Distribution in the California Current Ecosystem.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries, 14(1), e10190. Emmett, R. L., Krutzikowsky, G. K., & Bentley, P. (2006). Abundance and distribution of pelagic piscivorous fishes in the Columbia River plume during spring/early summer 1998-2003: relationship to oceanographic conditions, forage fishes, and juvenile salmonids.

Progress in Oceanography, 68(1), 1-26. Fennie, H. W., Seary, R., Muhling, B. A., Bograd, S. J., Brodie, S., Cimino, M. A., ... & Tommasi, D. (2023). An anchovy ecosystem indicator of marine predator foraging and reproduction.

Proceedings of the RoyalSociety B, 290(1992), 20222326. Kuriyama, P. T., Zwolinski, J. P., Teo, S. L. H. & Hill, K. T. (2022). Assessment of the Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) resource in 2021 for US management.

NOAA Technical Memorandum NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-665 Kuriyama, P. T., Allen Akselrud, C., Zwolinski, J. P., Hill, K. T. (2024). Assessment of the Pacific sardine resource in 2024 for US management in 2024-2025. NOAA Technical Memorandum NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-698 MacCall, A. D., Sydeman, W. J., Davison, P. C., & Thayer, J. A. (2016).

Recent collapse of northern anchovy biomass off California. Fisheries Research, 175, 87-94. Muhling, B., Brodie, S., Snodgrass, O., Tommasi, D., Dewar, H., Childers, J., Jacox, M. Edwards, C. A., Xu, Y. & Snyder, S. (2019).

Dynamic habitat use of albacore and their primary prey species in the California Current System. CalCOFI Reports 60: 1-15. Quezada, F. J., Tommasi, D., Frawley, T. H., Muhling, B., Kaplan, I., & Stohs, S. (2023).

Catch as catch can: Markets, availability, and fishery closures drive distinct responses among the US West Coast Coastal Pelagic Species fleet segments. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2023-009