Future changes in the vertical structure of severe convective storm environments over the U.S. Central Great Plains

However, such events are known to depend on the details of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic environment that can change independently of these bulk parameters. This work examines how warming may affect the complete vertical structure of these environments for fixed ranges of values of high CAPE and bulk shear, using data over the central Great Plains from two high-performing climate models (CNRM and MPI).

To first order, projected changes in the vertical sounding structure are consistent between the two models: the environment warms approximately uniformly with height at constant relative humidity, and the shear profile remains relatively constant. The boundary layer becomes slightly drier (−2% to 6% relative humidity) while the free troposphere becomes slightly moister (+1% to 3%), with a slight increase in moist static energy deficit aloft with stronger magnitude in CNRM.