On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations

We then extended these simulations for another four months to track the dispersal of the dye in the model. We have also performed five simulations in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the spill for four months and then run them out to one year from the initial spill date.

The experiments can elucidate the approximate timescales and space scales of dispersal of polluted waters and also give a quantitative estimate of the dilution rate. Given the uncertainty in rates of chemical or biological degradation for oil or an oil-dispersant mixture, we do not include a decay term for the dye. Thus, these results should be considered an absolute upper bound on the possible spatial extent of the dispersal of oil or oil-dispersant mixture.', The model results indicate that it is likely that oil-polluted waters from the Deepwater Horizon incident will, at some time over the six months following the initial spill date, be transported at relatively low concentrations over a significant part of the North-West Atlantic Ocean.