Subseasonal forecast skill improvement from Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation with a Linear Inverse Model

We show that a Kalman filter with a linear emulator of the coupled dynamics can be used to efficiently assimilate observations with SCDA. A linear inverse model (LIM), trained on 25 years of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis gridded data, is used to assimilate observations daily during an independent 7-year period.

SCDA sea-surface temperature (SST) analysis errors are reduced over 20% in global-mean mean-squared error relative to a control experiment where only SST observations are assimilated with an SST LIM. The analysis improvements enhance forecast skill for leads of at least 50 days. In contrast, extratropical Northern Hemisphere 2 m air temperature forecast errors increase for coupled data assimilation in these experiments, despite reduction during the training period.