Analysis of tropical storm formation based on ensemble data assimilation and high-resolution numerical simulations of a nondeveloping disturbance

The low-level circulation of the disturbance was relatively weak, asymmetric, and displaced a considerable distance from the midlevel circulation.

An ensemble of high-resolution numerical simulations initialized from global model analyses was used to further examine TCS025. These simulations tended to unrealistically overdevelop the TCS025 disturbance. This study extends that work by examining the impact of assimilating in situ observations of TCS025 and dual-Doppler radial velocities from the airborne Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble data assimilation system.