Data · dataset · 2026
Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region.
Description
In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence on its initial conditions versus dependence on its secular decline in a state-of-the-art global circulation model (GCM) under a 'perfect model' assumption.
We demonstrate initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice area is continuous for 1-2 years, after which predictability is intermittent in the 2-4 year range. Predictability of area at these longer lead times is associated with strong area-thickness coupling in the summer season. Initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice volume is significant continuously for 3-4 years, after which time predictability from secular trends dominates.
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Thus we conclude predictability of Arctic sea ice beyond 3 years is dominated by climate forcing rather than initial conditions. Additionally, we find that forecast of summer conditions are equally good from the previous September or January initial conditions.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7765g2z ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/influence-of-initial-conditions-and-climate-forcing-on… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=eb542e99-ca8c-48dc-821c-15969cb26… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 72%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | eb542e99-ca8c-48dc-821c-15969cb26216 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (72%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |