HD 13808 HARPS radial velocities

We use the state-of-the-art nested sampling algorithm PolyChord to compare a wide variety of stellar activity models, including simple models exploiting linear correlations between RVs and stellar activity indicators, harmonic models for the activity signals, and a more sophisticated Gaussian process regression model.

We show that the use of overly-simplistic stellar activity models that are not well-motivated physically can lead to spurious `detections' of planetary signals that are almost certainly not real. We also reveal some difficulties inherent in parameter and model inference in cases where multiple planetary signals may be present. Our study thus underlines the importance both of exploring a variety of competing models and of understanding the limitations and precision settings of one's sampling algorithm.