Data · dataset · 2026
The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Future changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations.
Description
By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE.
We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship.
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Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections.
The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d71j9frm ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/the-future-of-the-el-niao-southern-oscillation-using-l… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=ee48c3a8-6826-49d1-bd65-d5443f3b8… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 74% · Climate model simulation 65%
Provenance · 1 source records, 9 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | ee48c3a8-6826-49d1-bd65-d5443f3b8a94 | 11 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (74%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:climate-model | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (65%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |