Data · dataset · 2026
<p>TDGM mechanism-guided simulation architecture.</p>
Listed in UCL Research Data Repository
<div><p>Synthetic benchmarks can support tax-risk method development when administrative records are inaccessible, but a simulator can also predetermine the patterns later reported as detection findings.
Description
We present the Tax Data Generation Model (TDGM), a mechanism-guided simulator that enforces specified income-statement and balance-sheet identities, generates a three-year panel for 10,000 firms, and injects four prespecified risk strategies.
This study uses no administrative audit data; its purpose is to test whether the implementation reproduces its design assumptions and to provide a reproducible benchmark. All predictive evaluations used five repeated 70/30 group splits by firm, so no firm appeared in both training and test data. Observed marginal effects were heterogeneous rather than uniformly small: for all risky observations, Cohen’s was −1.29 for profit margin, −1.20 for tax burden, 1.05 for the transfer-pricing indicator, and 0.15 for the income-gap ratio.
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In a controlled cross-sectional comparison, raw CTGAN failed both row-level accounting identities, whereas deterministic projection restored 100% validity but worsened dependence fidelity. Under the revised classifier specification, a one-hidden-layer neural network with conventional L2 regularization achieved mean ROC-AUC 0.9942 and PR-AUC 0.9710; XGBoost achieved 0.9714 and 0.8975, respectively. Removing the income-gap ratio changed XGBoost ROC-AUC only from 0.9714 to 0.9702, while restricting the model to raw Level 1 variables reduced it to 0.8941.
At 1% prevalence, XGBoost ROC-AUC remained 0.9720 but PR-AUC fell to 0.6703, showing why prevalence-sensitive metrics are required. Together, the three contributions are a constraint-by-construction simulator, a reusable audit protocol for mechanism-guided generators, and explicit measurement of the accounting-repair/statistical-fidelity trade-off. Because selected flows are changed after stock generation, derived ratios can carry design-induced information.
These are internal properties of a synthetic data-generating process, not estimates of real tax-evasion behavior or deployable audit performance.</p></div>
Links
Where it is published
- DOI doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0353137.g002 ↗
DOI / persistent id · from rdr ucl ac uk
Catalogue records · 1
- OAI-PMH record api.figshare.com/v2/oai?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=oai_dc&identifier=oai%3Af… ↗
metadata API · from rdr ucl ac uk
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Economics & Finance · Genetics · Infectious diseases · Life Sciences · Mathematics & Statistics · Medicine & Health
- Inferred from text
- Simulation 75%
Provenance · 1 source records, 13 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCL Research Data Repository | oai:figshare.com:article/34049668 | 11 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| access_level | source · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].anzsrc:field:320211 | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | vocabulary-mapper@1.0.0 | keywords['Infectious Diseases'] |
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3105 | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | vocabulary-mapper@1.0.0 | keywords['Genetics'] |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:economics-finance | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:life-sciences | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:mathematics-statistics | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:medicine-health | mapping · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:simulation | enrichment · rdr ucl ac uk | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (75%) |
| description | source · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | /metadata/dc/description |
| license | source · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | /metadata/dc/rights |
| publication_date | source · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · rdr ucl ac uk | connector:rdr_ucl_ac_uk@1.0.0 | /metadata/dc/title |