Using the WRF model in an operational streamflow forecast system for the Jordan River

The WRF precipitation prediction has been coupled with the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE) to forecast the upper Jordan River streamflow. The daily WRF precipitation forecasts were verified against the measurements from a dense network of rain gauges in northern and central Israel, and the simulation results using the high-resolution WRF indicated good agreement with the actual measurements.

The daily precipitation amount calculated by WRF at rain gauges located in the upper parts of the Jordan River basin showed good agreement with the actual measurements. Numerical experiments were carried out to test the impact of the WRF model resolution and WRF microphysical schemes, to determine an optimal model configuration for this application. Because of orographic forcing in the region, it is necessary to run WRF with a 4--1.3-km grid increment and with sophisticated microphysical schemes that consider liquid water, ice, snow, and graupel to produce quality precipitation predictions.