R-band light curves of QSO J0158-4325 images

Of these four scenarios, only a supermassive binary black hole can account for both the short observed period and the amplitude of the signal, through the oscillation of the accretion disk towards and away from high-magnification regions of a microlensing caustic. The short measured period implies that the semi-major axis of the orbit is ~10^-3^pc and that and the coalescence timescale is t_coal_~1000 years, assuming that the decay of the orbit is solely powered by the emission of gravitational waves.

The probability of observing a system so close to coalescence, in a sample of only 30 monitored lensed quasars, suggests either a much larger population of supermassive binary black holes than predicted or, more likely, that some other mechanism significantly increases the coalescence timescale. Three tests of the binary black hole hypothesis include: (i) the recurrence of oscillations in photometric monitoring during any future microlensing events in either image, (ii) spectroscopic detection of Doppler shifts (up to ~0.01c) associated with optical emission in the vicinity of the black holes, and (iii) the detection of gravitational waves through pulsar timing array experiments, such as the Square Kilometre Array, which will have the sensitivity to detect the ~100 nano-hertz emission.