Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes -borne viruses in the United States

In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthlyAedes-borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States.

We employ a scenario matrix-combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to + 177% at the national scale in 2080 under SSP5*RCP8.5 relative to a historical baseline.