Projected intensification of subseasonal temperature variability and heat waves in the Great Plains

Here based on a 30-member climate change projection from an earth system model, we find that summertime subseasonal temperature variability in the U.S. Great Plains is enhanced by approximately 20% in 2070-2100 relative to 1980-2010.

In particular, daily temperature departures from the new climatologies during future heat waves are on average 0.6°C warmer than are the corresponding departures under present-day conditions. Although in both periods heat waves in the Great Plains tend to be associated with planetary wave events, the amplification of future heat waves does not appear to be induced by changes in planetary wave variability in the midlatitudes.