Assessing the intensity of heatwaves in a warming climate at the urban scale: A case study of the metropolitan area of Barcelona

In this regard, we project recent heatwave (HW) episodes in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB) with future climate conditions until 2100 using the pseudo global warming method. First, we determine all the HWs that occurred in the AMB during the last climatological period of 30 years (1991–2020) and simulate each individual event using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at high‐resolution.

Then, these historical HW events are resimulated with the modified atmospheric conditions of the midcentury (2041–2070) and the end of the century (2071–2100) according to the scenario SSP3‐7.0, in which CO 2 emissions are projected to almost double from current levels by 2100 following a low emission reduction scenario. In the AMB, HW intensity is expected to increase by 2.5°C and 4.2°C in the mid‐ and end‐of‐the‐century periods, respectively.