Ensemble Kalman-Filter-based seasonal runoff predictions for the Rio São Francisco River Basin

Local decision makers therefore need reliable long-term hydro-meteorological forecasts to support the seasonal management of water resources, reservoir operations and agriculture. In this context, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) framework is applied to predict sub-basin-scale runoff employing global freely available datasets of reanalysis precipitation (ERA5-Land) as well as Bias-Corrected and Spatially Disaggregated seasonal forecasts (SEAS5-BCSD).

Runoff is estimated using least squares predictions, exploiting the covariance structures between runoff and precipitation. This repository contains the runoff observations, the final EnKF-based runoff predictions, reference precipitation from ERA5-Land, bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated seasonal precipitation forecats from SEAS5-BCSD as well as shapefiles delineating the sub-basin-boundaries within the Rio São Francisco River Basin.