<b>From Agricultural Support to Climate Resilience: A Data-Driven Framework for Agricultural</b>

It examines how historical agricultural and climate data can be used to identify different sources and patterns of agricultural vulnerability and to match these conditions with appropriate categories of resilience investment.</p><p dir="ltr">The analysis combines FAOSTAT crop statistics for 2000–2023, ERA5 reanalysis climate data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, and provincial Agricultural Stress Index and crop-area rainfall data from FAO GIEWS/ASIS.

Production is decomposed into harvested-area and yield components, while rainfall–crop relationships and provincial drought exposure are examined.</p><p dir="ltr">The results indicate that Zimbabwe’s recent agricultural climate challenge is characterised more by substantial rainfall variability than by a statistically significant decline in seasonal rainfall. Production instability in rainfed cereals is predominantly associated with yield variation, while irrigated wheat exhibits a contrasting pattern in which harvested-area variation accounts for most production variance.