Burn-P3 modelling of fire behaivour on Rose Swanson Mountain, British Columbia before and after harvesting

After 5,000 iterations of the BurnP3 model using the pre-logging fuel type data, the fire probability ranged from 0% to 49.7%, with a mean probability of 6.45% across the landscape. After 5000 iterations of the BurnP3 model using post logging fuel types on Rose Swanson, the burn probability ranged from 0-49.34%, with a mean of 6.43% across Rose Swanson Mountain. This indicated the fire probability across the mountain and little increase as a whole.

However, an apparent increase in fire probability was present in the close vicinity to the logged areas. Additionally, the pre-logged average fire intensity values on Rose Swanson ranged from 0 to 60,599 kW/m with a mean value of 2,841 kW/m, while the post-logged ranged from 0 to 122,849 KW/m with a mean of 3,183 kW/m. This difference was clear in the maps produced by BurnP3.

While the results were insightful, many limitations were noted, including poor fuel type accuracy, limited model run count, and low-resolution data. The research offers valuable insight into the wildfire and harvesting relationship and sets the toon for further research.