Will climate change impact polar NOx produced by energetic particle precipitation?

During winter, mesospheric NOx has a long chemical lifetime and is transported to the stratosphere by the mean meridional circulation. Climate change is expected to accelerate this circulation and therefore increase polar mesospheric descent rates.

We investigate the Southern Hemispheric polar NOx distribution during the 21st century under a variety of future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We simulate stronger polar mesospheric descent in all future scenarios that increase the atmospheric radiative forcing. Polar NOx in the upper stratosphere is significantly enhanced in two future scenarios with the largest increase in radiative forcing.