Transits, occultation times and RVs of WASP-12b

Since the planet's discovery in 2008, the time interval between transits has been decreasing by 29+/-2ms/yr. This is a possible sign of orbital decay, although the previously available data left open the possibility that the planet's orbit is slightly eccentric and is undergoing apsidal precession.

Here, we present new transit and occultation observations that provide more decisive evidence for orbital decay, which is favored over apsidal precession by a {Delta}BIC of 22.3 or Bayes factor of 70000. We also present new radial-velocity data that rule out the Romer effect as the cause of the period change. This makes WASP-12 the first planetary system for which we can be confident that the orbit is decaying.