Insuring the Fallback: Capital, Monitoring, and the Certification of Preserved Human Capability under Improving AI — Replication Package

<p dir="ltr">Replication package for "Insuring the Fallback: Capital, Monitoring, and the Certification of Preserved Human Capability under Improving AI" (Andreas Bauer, September 2026), manuscript version 8.1 as on arXiv:2609.26172v2.</p><p dir="ltr">Contents: sim/model_v8.py (every closed form used in the paper, exactly once), sim/make_numbers.py (results.json -> paper/numbers.tex, including the 1000-draw robustness check), sim/make_figures.py (all figures), results/results.json and results/params.json (every number quoted in the manuscript and the scenario parameters), scripts/fix_bbl.py (companion-paper order in the bibliography), paper/ (LaTeX source of the paper and the online appendix, bibliography, figures, compiled PDFs).</p><p dir="ltr">Reproduction: python3 sim/make_numbers.py; python3 sim/make_figures.py; then pdflatex/bibtex as in the README.

Requires numpy and matplotlib; runtime about two minutes. No number is typed into the manuscript: every quoted value is an auto-generated LaTeX macro.</p><p dir="ltr">Version 3 (September 2026) replaces version 2 (August 2026, subtitle "Capacity, Monitoring and the Third Audience"). The continuous separating schedule of v2 is withdrawn (Appendix B); the equilibrium is now a binary certificate menu with an explicit null option and the client's expected recovery in the price.