Opportunities and Challenges for Canada’s Mariculture Under Climate Change: A Regional and Sectoral Outlook

Using the Global Mariculture Production Model (GOMAP), we assessed projected changes in production potential, farm-gate prices, and employment for key 13 species across the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Projections were modelled under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and three production scenarios.

Results show substantial regional disparities. The Atlantic region is expected to see modest gains under SSP1-2.6 but steep declines under SSP5-8.5 due to climate stress and habitat loss. In contrast, Pacific Canada; particularly central and northern areas show strong growth potential under SSP5-8.5, especially for climate-resilient finfish like Coho salmon and Steelhead trout.