Supplementary data for LUCC simulation and landscape ecological risk assessment in the Tarim River Basin

Confusion matrix and class-specific accuracy of the intPLUS land use simulation for 2020. The matrix cross-references the observed 2020 land-use grids (the calibration target) against simulated outputs for six land categories, reporting producer's accuracy (PA), user's accuracy (UA), overall accuracy (OA = 0.972), Kappa coefficient (0.941), and figure of merit (FOM = 0.184). Because the 2020 observation was used in model calibration, these metrics characterize post-calibration reproduction rather than independent validation.

PA values exceed 95 % for grassland, forest, and unused land, whereas water bodies and developed land show lower accuracy, mainly due to frequent misclassification between narrow river channels and surrounding unused desert land — a typical feature of arid inland basins. These metrics support the use of the simulated land-use patterns for subsequent multiscenario analysis.