CCS Projections for krill

The environmental predictor variables included static variables: bottom rugosity and distance from shore, and dynamic variables in May: surface eastward velocity, surface northward velocity, surface northward wind stress, stratification strength, isothermal layer depth, wind stress curl, and sea surface temperature. Krill predictions were made monthly from April to August. To force the projections, daily output from the three downscaled ocean projections for the CCS were used.

These downscaled projections are based on an implementation of the same 0.1° ROMS domain described above, with bias-corrected forcing obtained from three earth system models (ESMs) for the period from 1990 to 2100 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario (Pozo Buil et al., 2021). Downscaled ESMs were selected to span the range of plausible futures for the CCS, and belong to the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) archive: the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (GFDL) ESM2M, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) CM5A-MR and the Hadley Center HadGEM2-ES (HAD).

References Cimino, M.A., Santora, J.A., Schroeder, I., Sydeman, W., Jacox, M.G., Hazen, E.L., Bograd, S.J. (2020) Essential krill species habitat resolved by seasonal upwelling and ocean circulation models within the large marine ecosystem of the California Current System. Ecography 43: doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05204 Pozo Buil, M., Jacox, M.G., Fiechter, J., Alexander, M.A., Bograd, S.J., Curchitser, E.N. et al. (2021).

A dynamically downscaled ensemble of future projections for the California current system. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 612874.