Wave breaking predictions for hot Jupiters

Wave breaking is predicted to be largely inactive in pre-intermediate-age main sequence (IAMS) stars. For hosts with masses <1.2M_{sun}_, it becomes effective after the IAMS, while in more massive stars it begins between the IAMS and the terminal-age main sequence (TAMS). The tidal quality factor for systems undergoing wave breaking peaks between 10^6 and 10^7, consistent with population-level inferences.

About 43 % of planets, mostly with periods <3.5d, are expected to inspiral on the main sequence, providing a physical explanation for the observed tendency of hot Jupiters to orbit younger stars. A further 41 % inspiral during post-main- sequence evolution within the stages considered. Roche-limit disruption dominates overall, with engulfment occurring mainly for planets with periods > 5-6d.

Systems with periods <1d, that could in principle experience the strongest tidal forcing, are unlikely to trigger wave breaking, leaving planets on stable orbits. Conversely, the most rapidly inspiralling systems with high wave-breaking probability may display measurable orbital-period shortening only over multi-decade baselines, eluding immediate detection. By contrast, the demographic imprint of wave breaking on occurrence rates should emerge more readily, with the first signs already visible in current population statistics.