Risk Perception and Smoking Behavior: Empirical Evidence From Taiwan

In our analysis, two equations are estimated: (1) risk perception; and (2) smoking probability. The simultaneity problem in estimating risk perception and smoking probability is also considered.

Overall, the results indicate that the risk perceptions of cigarette smoking are substantially overestimated and these risk perceptions in turn, have a significantly negative effect on smoking probability. Also, the results suggest that the determinants of risk perception are consistent with the predictions of a Bayesian learning framework.