The signature of internal variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle

Our results suggest that trends in the observational record must be interpreted with caution because of multiple possible histories that would have been observed if the sequence of internal variability had unfolded differently. Furthermore, internal variability produces irreducible uncertainty in the carbon cycle, leading to ambiguity in the magnitude and sign of carbon cycle trends, especially at small spatial scales and short timescales.

The small spread in initial land carbon pools at 1850 suggests that internal climate variability arising from atmospheric and oceanic initialization, not the biogeochemical initialization, is the predominant cause of carbon cycle variability among ensemble members. Initial-condition ensembles with other Earth system models are needed to develop a multi-model understanding of internal variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle.