Quantifying the Impact of Solar Irradiance Uncertainty on Thermosphere-Ionosphere Variability Using Ensemble Forecasts

Ensemble simulation experiments were conducted for the 2021/2022 winter period, using both data-driven and parameterized solar irradiance perturbations to assess their impact.

The ensemble spread in electron density and neutral temperature is used as a measure of the system's sensitivity to changes in solar irradiance. Simulation results are also compared with satellite observations from Swarm, ICON, and COSMIC-2. files with string "euvac05" are result from EXP1 on table 1 in the paper. files with string "euvac15" are result from EXP2 on table 1 in the paper. files with string "data" are result from EXP3 on table 1 in the paper. files with string "data_doubled" are result from EXP4 on table 1 in the paper.