Analog-based ensemble model output statistics

Given a set of analog predictors and corresponding weights, which are optimized with a brute-force continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) minimization, forecasts similar to a current ensemble forecast (i.e., analogs) are searched. The best analogs and the corresponding observations form the training dataset for estimating the EMOS coefficients.

To test the new approach for renewable energy applications, wind speed measurements at 100-m height from six measurement towers and wind ensemble forecasts at 100-m height from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are used. The analog-based EMOS is compared against EMOS, an adaptive and recursive wind vector calibration (AUV), and an analog ensemble applied to ECMWF EPS.