Fire disturbance and climate change: Implications for Russian forests

Fire disturbance is an integral determinant of the forest's composition and structure, and changing climate conditions are expected to create more frequent and severe fires. Using the individual tree-based forest gap model UVAFME, along with an updated fire disturbance module that tracks mortality based on tree-species and-size level effects, biomass and species dynamics are simulated across Russia for multiple scenarios: with and without fire, and with and without altered climate.

Historical fire return intervals and percent of forest stand mortality are calculated for the Russian eco-regions and applied to 31 010 simulation points across Russia. Simulation results from the scenarios are compared to assess changes in biomass, composition, and stand structure after 600 years of successional change following bare-ground initiation. Simulations that include fire disturbance show an increase in biomass across the region compared to equivalent simulations without fire.