Data-driven ensemble modeling of equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics: A case study during a minor storm period under solar minimum conditions

We investigate this variability by carrying out comprehensive data-driven ensemble modeling using a coupled model of the thermosphere and ionosphere, with the focus on the vertical E x B drift variability during a solar minimum and minor storm period.

The variability of vertical E x B drift in response to the changes and uncertainty of primary forcings (i.e., solar EUV, high-latitude plasma convection and auroral particle precipitation, and loweratmospheric tide and wave forcing) is investigated by ensemble forcing sensitivity experiments that incorporate data-driven stochastic perturbations of these forcings into the model. Second, the impact of assimilating FORMOsa SATellite-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) electron density profiles (EDPs) on the reduction of uncertainty of the modeled vertical E x B drift variability resulting from inadequately specified external forcing is revealed.