Data · dataset · 2026
Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance.
Description
In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases.
We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 +/- 104m Wm(-2), (2) 163 +/- 109m Wm(-2), and (3) 238 +/- 113m Wm(-2) due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 +/- 130m Wm(-2) relative to year 2000 and 760 +/- 230m Wm(-2) relative to year 1750, with the 95% confidence interval given by +/- 30 %.
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We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46m Wm(-2)). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for similar to 50% of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000-2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70k2cbs ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/key-drivers-of-ozone-change-and-its-radiative-forcing-… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=65b9bc71-78ff-4348-8f47-e067f1cff… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Atmospheric sciences 74% · Climate model simulation 65%
Provenance · 1 source records, 9 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 65b9bc71-78ff-4348-8f47-e067f1cff153 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3701 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (74%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:climate-model | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (65%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |