ASSESSING EXPOSURE OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LANDBIRD SPECIES TO PROJECTED CLIMATE AND LAND COVER CHANGE

We used publicly available eBird-derived data products on the relative abundances of 218 landbird species across the eastern United States to quantify species- and community-level exposure to projected climate and land use changes through the end of the century. We assessed the relationship between climate and land cover exposure for individual species and for the entire avian community, and we identified the ecological characteristics associated with the most vulnerable species, species groups, and locations across the region. </p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">Results: We found that the species and areas which were most exposed to these threats were broadly consistent under different climate forecast scenarios but that mean climate exposure was 57% higher under the more pessimistic emissions scenario.

High-latitude species and species associated with forest and grassland environments had relatively high projected exposure to climate change, whereas species associated with non-forested environments will face higher exposure to changes in land use. By examining land cover and climate projections simultaneously, our analysis showed that most species will likely experience high exposure to either climate or to land use change, but rarely both.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">Main conclusions: Despite differences in the species potentially affected by these threats, spatial patterns of community-wide exposure to climate and land use change were strongly correlated (Pearson’s r = 0.78-0.84), underscoring the need to target conservation intervention towards key areas across the eastern United States where avian communities may be the most vulnerable.</p><p><br></p>