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Data · dataset · 2026

<p>Changes in the probability of a major outbreak driven by demographic shifts in South Korea.</p>

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<p>A. The estimated contact matrix in South Korea in 2000 (), representing the expected daily number of unique contacts that an individual in the age group shown on the x-axis has with individuals in the age group shown on the y-axis.

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Here, we have used the density correction method. The graph shown on top represents the total expected daily number of unique contacts that an individual in the age group shown on the x-axis has (i.e., the column sum of the contact matrix).

B. Analogous figure to panel A, but for 2025 (). C. Analogous figure to panel A, but for 2050 (). D. The probability of a major outbreak starting from a single infected individual in the specified age group (orange bars) in the year 2000.

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The population average probability of a major outbreak (black) and the contact-weighted average probability of a major outbreak (red dashed) are also shown. E. Analogous figure to panel D, but for 2025. F. Analogous figure to panel D, but for 2050.

G–L. Identical to A–F, but using the pairwise correction contact matrix projection method.</p>

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UCL Research Data Repositoryoai:figshare.com:article/3404903912 d agoJSON v1
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